The committee continued its study on home energy retrofits, hearing from five witnesses: Maya Papineau, an associate professor of economics at Carleton University; Charles De Land of the Canada West Foundation; Marieke Cloutier and Mayor Berry Vrbanovic of the Federation of Canadian Municipalities; and Thomas Mueller of the Canada Green Building Council.
Maya Papineau presented research on Canada's ecoENERGY retrofit program, finding that participating households cut natural gas use by 20% and comprehensive envelope retrofits by about 35%, but that realized savings were only about 60% of model predictions, and under half for envelope retrofits. She attributed much of the gap to contractor workmanship and said basement insulation and window-and-door replacements produced statistically zero savings. She recommended building randomized control trials and evaluation into programs before deployment, using large anonymized utility datasets instead of the 30-year-old HOT2000 model, treating workforce training and quality assurance as climate policy, and tracking total household energy expenditures and their distribution rather than electricity prices alone. She said she favoured continued rebates, including for middle-class households, but noted rebates were distributed evenly across the wealth distribution rather than targeted to lower-income households, and that her study excluded reserves and multi-family buildings.
Charles De Land argued Canada should pursue lower energy use and emissions through cost-effective, performance-based policy rather than prescribing one technology or banning fuels. He cited a 2022 scenario estimating that electrifying space and water heating in emitting homes by 2050 would require more than 400,000 retrofits annually, and his electricity price analysis finding 2023 normalized system costs ranging from about $76 per megawatt hour in Quebec to $225 in Alberta. He offered five principles: set performance outcomes rather than fuel mandates; measure value for money per gigajoule and per tonne alongside bill, peak and administrative effects; prevent future retrofit costs through better new construction; preserve consumer choice, including high-efficiency gas and hybrid systems; and use public support selectively where genuine barriers exist, such as low incomes, split incentives and northern conditions.
Marieke Cloutier and Berry Vrbanovic described the Green Municipal Fund's 26-year partnership with the federal government, citing $5.6 billion in GDP, $3.1 billion in wages, roughly 60,000 person-years of employment and 3.02 million tonnes of avoided emissions, plus more than $270 million in mobilized private capital since 2019. They promoted PACE-style financing, launched in more than 40 municipalities across eight provinces, with anticipated results of over 16,000 homes retrofitted, about 590,000 gigajoules in annual savings, 3,800 jobs and average household energy savings of about 30%, verified through pre- and post-retrofit EnerGuide assessments and third-party evaluation. They said the $300-million envelope will be fully committed this year with demand exceeding available funds, and asked for an $800-million increase to scale three programs; Cloutier noted mature PACE programs average around 16% administrative costs and that Quebec still lacks a legislative framework for PACE.
Thomas Mueller said Canada needs better-performing homes, not just more homes, noting the green building sector represented $81 billion in GDP and over half a million jobs in 2024, and that a poll found 60% of Canadians feel their energy bill is at least a moderate burden, with operating savings of 37% to 59% possible. He made five recommendations: embed energy performance requirements in affordable and rental housing investments; support retrofit pathways aligned with owners' capital budgets and equipment replacement cycles; provide stable multi-year funding; pair accessible financing with consistent measurement and third-party verification; and adopt a coherent whole-of-government approach with stackable requirements. He said he could not assess the efficiency of government spending but pointed to multi-unit buildings' economies of scale, and endorsed flexibility such as hybrid systems in colder regions.
Witnesses disagreed on emphasis rather than fact: Papineau's finding that realized savings fell well short of model predictions was contrasted by Ross with the FCM's verified 30% average savings, and De Land's call to preserve gas and hybrid options sat against Papineau's support for promoting heat pumps over gas furnaces and her openness to eventually banning fossil-fuelled furnace sales. Mueller echoed De Land's and the FCM's emphasis on program alignment and flexibility, while Papineau stressed that without built-in evaluation, spending risks not delivering expected savings.
On procedure, members debated the cost of COP travel, with Bonin and St-Pierre asking for a breakdown and a cap on the per-member amount and interpretation costs, which members appeared to accept. Leslie gave notice of a motion recommending the government update the 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan and avoid litigation spending over it; no vote is recorded in the transcript.
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