The House of Commons Standing Committee on Environment and Sustainable Development met to study Canada's 2030 emissions reduction plan. Appearing as witnesses were Dave Sawyer, Principal Economist at the Canadian Climate Institute; Dr. Heather Exner-Pirot, Director of Energy, Natural Resources and Environment at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute; and Moe Kabbara, President of The Transition Accelerator.
Dave Sawyer stated that Canada's climate progress is fragile, with emissions flatlining in 2024 at 694 megatonnes, well off the 2030 target, due to policy rollbacks and record oil and gas output. He noted that electricity sector emissions have dropped 60% below 2005 levels through federal-provincial cooperation, but oil sands emissions are up 150% since 2005, wiping out gains in other sectors. He recommended strengthening provincial large-emitter programs, tightening oil and gas methane regulations, fixing the EV standard, and implementing clean electricity regulations with investment tax credits, adding that every tonne of avoided emissions matters even if the 2030 target is missed.
Dr. Heather Exner-Pirot argued that the 2030 emissions reduction plan is incompatible with goals of becoming an energy superpower and the fastest-growing G7 economy, citing the clean electricity regulations, EV mandate, emissions cap, and industrial carbon tax as harming competitiveness. She stated that the emissions cap effectively acts as a production cap, deterring investment and risking a shift of production to jurisdictions with lower environmental standards, and that displacing Canadian heavy oil would likely increase global emissions. She recommended focusing on making Canada's energy-intensive sectors better rather than smaller, and warned that the government's own modelling underestimates the economic impact of the cap.
Moe Kabbara emphasized the need to balance climate ambition with economic competitiveness, focusing on sectors where transformation is both technically feasible and economically advantageous, such as electricity, EVs, critical minerals processing, mass timber, and defence. He argued that 70% of Canada's emissions come from sectors other than oil and gas, presenting the greatest opportunities for growth, and that every policy action should strengthen Canada's competitive position and create long-term economic value. He agreed with Sawyer that meeting the 2030 target is likely impossible but said the focus should be on building the structural transformation needed for a low-carbon future.
During questioning, Sawyer clarified that the emissions cap allows compliance flexibility through trading and offsets, unlike a production cap, and that the cost of reducing emissions through production cuts is far higher than through other compliance options. Exner-Pirot disagreed, asserting that the cap makes Canadian oil and gas uncompetitive globally and that the PBO's estimated cost of $2,887 per tonne is far higher than other climate policies. Kabbara noted that alignment between federal and provincial governments is key, and that asymmetrical policies tailored to different jurisdictions could improve implementation.
The committee also discussed the impact of policy rollbacks in Alberta and Saskatchewan, with Sawyer noting that Saskatchewan has suspended its industrial carbon pricing system and Alberta's recent changes have chilled the market, while Quebec's cap-and-trade system remains strong. Exner-Pirot criticized the government's focus on green hydrogen over LNG, arguing it damaged Canada's credibility as a reliable energy partner, and warned that the Major Projects Office approach of picking winners creates unfair competition. No procedural motions or votes were recorded during this meeting.
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