The House of Commons Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs and International Development met on March 12, 2026, to study the situation in Venezuela. Witnesses were Kristin Halvorsen, Acting Representative in Venezuela for the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR); Elizabeth Dickinson, Deputy Director for Latin America at the International Crisis Group; Robert Johnston, Director of Energy and Natural Resources Policy at the University of Calgary's School of Public Policy, appearing as an individual; and Daniel Di Martino, a Fellow at the Manhattan Institute, appearing as an individual.
Kristin Halvorsen described a steady trend of Venezuelans returning to the country, driven by family reunification, reduced opportunities abroad, and hope for economic recovery, with 59% of monitored individuals returning and 85% of returnees wishing to stay if basic conditions are met. She noted that UNHCR is preparing to support voluntary returns and reintegration inside Venezuela, while also emphasizing the need for continued support for regularization and integration in host countries. She recommended that Canada maintain and expand its humanitarian support, particularly for psychosocial services, documentation, and labour inclusion, and highlighted that UNHCR works with local authorities and through tripartite agreements with host and origin countries.
Elizabeth Dickinson focused on security risks, noting that the January 3 U.S. operation removed Maduro but left the regime's ecosystem of power intact, with no fractures in the security apparatus. She warned that armed criminal groups like the Colombian ELN, which controls mining areas and trafficking corridors with complicity from Venezuelan security forces, may radicalize and expand their control, particularly in the mineral arc and border regions. She recommended a gradual political dialogue between the government and opposition to establish conditions for a democratic transition, including security sector reform and justice for human rights abuses, and advised Canada to adopt a wait-and-see approach before reopening diplomatic relations, watching for implementation of reforms like the amnesty law.
Robert Johnston analyzed Venezuela's oil sector, stating that recovery is limited by weak global upstream investment and a preference for lower-risk projects, with production unlikely to rise from one million barrels a day to past levels without significant foreign capital, risk guarantees, and security from the U.S. government. He noted that a Venezuelan production increase of 500,000 to one million barrels a day could lower prices for Canadian oil on the U.S. Gulf Coast but increase demand for Canadian heavy oil in Asia, supporting the case for west coast pipeline capacity. He disagreed with the idea of a rapid political transition, warning it could destabilize the country, and emphasized that Canada should monitor U.S. efforts to provide conditions for oil recovery.
Daniel Di Martino argued that Venezuela's crisis was caused by socialist policies that destroyed economic liberty and democratic institutions, and he strongly supported the U.S. operation to arrest Maduro, calling it lawful and just. He warned that the remnants of the regime aim to lengthen the transition to outlast the Trump administration, and he recommended that Canada insist on full political liberalization, free general elections, and the release of all political prisoners, potentially serving as election observers. He disagreed with Dickinson on the regional impact, arguing the operation had a chilling effect only on enemies of the West and was welcomed by pro-freedom governments, and he stated that only the credible threat of U.S. military force can ensure a democratic transition.
The committee did not engage in procedural debate, motions, or votes during this meeting.
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