Human Resources, Skills and Social Development and the Status of Persons with Disabilities

Opening remarks

Thanks for the invitation to discuss the relationship between housing starts and federal programs in Canada. The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, or CMHC, has a unique, and perhaps crucial, perspective here. We have a national view—operating in all regions of the country—and we are at arm's length from the government. We also have a market intelligence network of analysts in most major markets of the country. We were previously tasked with delivering a selection of federal programs. Today, Build Canada Homes is the lead on creating non-market housing, while we are focused mainly on market housing, which is home to 95% of Canadians. All this being given, the pace of housing starts and the balance of supply are central to our mandate. The latest housing data point to a continued loss of momentum in housing construction, broadly in line with CMHC's housing market outlook. While actual starts increased compared to a year ago, this reflects the exceptionally low level of construction activity in the first quarter of last year. Falling condo pre-sales and tightening financial conditions are threatening the future supply of ownership-oriented housing, particularly in Toronto…

Opening remarks

What's really important in terms of bringing that stability is to have foresight about what's coming down the road. To have good foresight, you need to map out the full continuum of activity, from permits or even before—working on pre-sales and building intent for the rental market—all the way up to completion and absorption into the market. Right now, we have a pretty good picture from start to absorption. With building permits and work with other agencies, such as Statistics Canada, we're arriving at that. As for your earlier point, we're now also releasing the time duration between a permit and a start, which is a very good indication of what's happening between the two. If it gets longer, it's probably because the market is under a bit more strain. Now we're trying to add to that, to go even earlier in the process, working with industry and building the industry association to acquire pre-sale data and their rental market building intention equivalent. This is in order to have the earliest point possible, not only to map out the mood but also to provide the information early enough so that the industry can adjust and have smoother cycles.