Government Operations and Estimates

The House of Commons Standing Committee on Government Operations and Estimates (OGGO) met on May 28, 2026, to study the 2026-27 main estimates. Appearing as witnesses were Annette Ryan, Parliamentary Budget Officer; Caroline Nicol, Advisor-Analyst; and Govindadeva Bernier, Director of Budgetary Analysis, all from the Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO).

Annette Ryan opened by stating that the 2026-27 main estimates include $502.8 billion in budgetary authorities, with $230.4 billion requiring parliamentary approval. She noted these are the first estimates since the government adopted a fall budget cycle, including $14.8 billion for budget 2025 measures, and that supplementary estimates (A) were tabled that morning. Ryan committed to tracking how budget measures are implemented from announcement through to public accounts, emphasizing this as central to parliamentary oversight.

In response to questions from Jeremy Patzer, Ryan said the PBO could potentially examine the added cost of the "buy Canada" policy moving away from low-bid procurement, though it has not been studied yet. She expressed concern about the government's debt profile, noting that $523 billion in federal market debt coming due at 1% will be refinanced at roughly 3%, driving debt service charges toward 13% of government revenue and rising from $1,500 to $1,900 per Canadian. Ryan added that the government's use of short-term versus long-term debt creates exposure if interest rates spike, putting pressure on the debt-to-GDP ratio.

Responding to Vince Gasparro, Ryan acknowledged Canada's economic strengths, including a strong international position per the IMF, but stressed the need for parliamentary scrutiny of how government strategies translate into real economic impacts. She noted that while Canada's funded pension obligations contribute to its positive comparative profile, questions remain about the balance of spending now versus later, and that adding provincial and household debt provides a fuller picture.

Marie-Hélène Gaudreau asked about Canada's fiscal standing, and Ryan described it as having both solid and fragile aspects, with rising debt limiting the country's ability to address future risks. On old age security, Caroline Nicol explained that projected spending is driven by demographics and inflation, with the population aged 65 and over growing at about 3.5% annually. Ryan added that the PBO has asked Employment and Social Development Canada for details on the Cúram system's impact on benefits and will continue monitoring.

Tamara Jansen questioned the effectiveness of Build Canada Homes, and Govindadeva Bernier said the PBO's initial reports suggest it will not "move the needle much," estimating only 26,000 units over five years. Nicol noted that housing starts have been on a downward trend in recent months. Ryan agreed that Parliament should expect clear performance metrics tied to housing completions before approving large spending increases, and that the government's target of 500,000 homes has not been met.

Pauline Rochefort highlighted positive investor sentiment toward Canada, and Ryan said that while this is good news, the PBO wants to see how financial investment translates into real projects and jobs in Canada's economy. She noted that other measures, such as productivity and business investment, paint a less rosy picture.

Harb Gill asked about fiscal discipline, and Ryan said the government has a path to deepen its balance through a comprehensive expenditure review, but that in the spring economic update, the government chose to increase spending rather than reduce debt or taxes. She noted that the government's second fiscal anchor lacks public definitions, limiting the ability to assess whether it is on track.

John-Paul Danko asked about the shift to a fall budget cycle, and Bernier said it has improved alignment, with $14 billion of budget measures now appearing in the main estimates compared to only in supplementary estimates previously. On separating capital and operating expenses, Ryan said the government's new fiscal anchor could advance transparency if it shares its definitions of those terms.

Stéphane Lauzon asked about oversight mechanisms, and Ryan said developing the ability to track government promises and initiatives in budgets for each department would allow parliamentarians to ask ministers for updates on commitments and results. She added that the PBO is working on indicators to identify strengths, weaknesses and emerging risks, including measures of household debt and debt structure.

Marie-Hélène Gaudreau moved a motion for a study of at least two meetings on National Capital Commission procurement practices, contract awarding and compliance with the Official Languages Act. After debate, the committee agreed to adjourn debate on the motion to allow for further discussion off-line, with the motion to be finalized at the next meeting.